AN ATTEMPT AT MODELLING AND FORECASTING THE HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION IN ROMANIA –METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES-

Geomina Turlea ()
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Geomina Turlea: Institute of World Economy, Romanian Academy, Bucharest

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2000, issue 3, 58-68

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to highlight the technical aspects of an attempt to construct a quarterly equation of household’s consumption as part of modelling the expenditure side of the GDP. Quarterly data on households’ consumption are available both in nominal and real terms for the 1994 Q1-1994 Q4 sample. The author extended the series of data to 1998 and 1999 using simple regressions for the main components of the disposable income, then interpolated the annual data using related series to obtain the quarterly estimates of the disposable income. The model was run for forecasting the real growth in the households’ consumption in the first quarter of 2000.

Keywords: household consumption; Kalman filter; LAM-3 model; Chow forecast test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 D12 E21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:3:p:58-68

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