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EFFECTS OF CAP ADOPTION UPON AGRICULTURAL DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE

Cecilia Alexandri

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2002, issue 2, 15-29

Abstract: The present paper presents the implications of the CAP adoption on production, demand and trade of the agricultural products in Romania. The analysis is based on three scenarios. The first scenario has in view the present CAP regime adoption in the next period (tomorrow). The second scenario has in view the adoption of the CAP regime from Agenda 2000 in the next period. The third scenario starts from the very likely premise of CAP adoption stipulated by Agenda 2000 in the future (in the year 2009), when an increase in the population's incomes is expected. The assessment made at producer and consumer level lead to the conclusion that scenario 1 is the most favorable (due to the amplification of agricultural producers' gain by adopting the present CAP regime), while the less favorable is scenario 3 (due to the amplification of consumers' loss, by demand expansion).

Keywords: agriculture; policy; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 C51 E42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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