METHODOLOGY OF SCENARIO FORECASTING OF RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Kirill Mikhailenko
Additional contact information
Kirill Mikhailenko: Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Moscow, Russian Federation
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Kirill Mikhaylenko

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2003, issue 5, 78-91

Abstract: The author argues that the Russian economy has unique features that make the application of standard macroeconomic models problematic. He supports the idea of developing new instruments of analysis and forecasting of social and economic development of the Russian economy. The proposed modelling complex is composed of a database and three models. The first model is elaborated for short term forecasting of basic macroeconomic indicators. The second model is a quarterly scenario forecasting of Russian economy in the medium run. The third model realizes forecasts of annual balances in the framework of the System of National Accounts. The forecasting exercises of the complex modelling are realised under two alternative scenario, an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario.

Keywords: macroeconomic modelling; forecasting; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E23 E25 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:78-91

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).