Estimating Coal Price Dynamics with the Principal Components Method

Mejra Festic (), Sebastijan Repina () and Robert Volcjak ()
Additional contact information
Mejra Festic: Mejra Festić, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor; EIPF - Economic Institute, Ljubljana. SLOVENIA. mejra.festic@eipf.si; fax: 00386 2 250 81 77
Sebastijan Repina: EIPF - Economic Institute, Ljubljana.
Robert Volcjak: EIPF - Economic Institute, Ljubljana

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2010, issue 2, 188-212

Abstract: The future use of coal depends on environmental protection measures and the Kyoto Protocol, the price of CO2 emission coupons, consumption, new technologies, the price of other energy sources and the liberalization of the electricity markets. The prices of emission coupons will impact the costs of electricity energy production. Due to the relatively higher reference costs of alternative energy sources, we can not expect that the share of coal as an energy source will lower significantly as a source of electricity production in the future. From the point of view of regional economic aspects and the reference costs of electricity production, we could state that using coal in the near future is also tied to the socio-economic aspects of mining domestic coal. Using it in thermo plants is also enabled by the conditions of priority dispatching (since 2000) in the EU economies. We assessed the influence of prices and the use of other energy sources, environmental measures, energy efficiency and the influence of electricity market liberalisation on coal price movements. Our estimation shows that, if the prices of other energy sources and electricity increase, the price of coal increases. If the use of other energy sources increases, and if the gross uses of industrial waste and renewable resources increase, the price of coal decreases. Environmental protection measures contribute to an increase in coal prices. A higher quotient of energy efficiency decelerates the price of coal. And the euro (to dollar) appreciation decelerates coal prices.

Keywords: coal prices; environmental protection measures; priority dispatching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C40 C50 Q31 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_10/rjef2_10_12.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:188-212

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).