An Empirical Analysis of The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate’s Changes on Industrial Restructure

Boya Wang () and Siyue Liu
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Boya Wang: Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Postgraduate, Research Division: International Finance, China.
Siyue Liu: Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Associate Professor, Research Division: International Finance

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2014, issue 4, 128-139

Abstract: This paper establishes a nonlinear semi-logarithmic model to empirically test China’s economic data from 1994 to 2014 in order to analyze directly the impact of RMB exchange rate’s changes on industrial restructuring. We draw the conclusion that the appreciation of nominal effective exchange rate hastens the development of the tertiary industry, while it restrains the secondary industry, and it shows non-significant effects on the primary industry. Different from most previous studies, it comes to the conclusion that RMB nominal effective exchange rate has more influence on the tertiary industry than on the secondary industry, and it supports more strongly that RMB appreciation raises the tertiary industry’s position in the national economy. The reform of exchange rate regime in 2005 has reduced the exchange rate’s impact on economy, so a mature foreign exchange market is conducive to economic development.

Keywords: nominal effective exchange rate; industrial restructure; RMB exchange rate regime reform; incomplete pass-through; nonlinear semi-logarithmic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 L00 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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