Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget

Emilian Dobrescu ()

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2016, issue 4, 5-34

Abstract: This paper examines two potential positions in the debate over the public budget size. Notably, the indicator used is inherently unstable, and shifting opinions regarding the public budget’s size might be a psychosocial mirror of the real-world volatility itself. However, this indicator may be dominated by a hidden variable in given historical frameworks, and the ensuing debates under this hypothesis might reflect the effective public budget’s deviations from the applicable contextual attractor. Testing the temporal features of a large database, the paper supports the second assumption. The possible attractors are approximated using the VAR algorithm and the BARS Curve.

Keywords: public budget size; attractor; VAR; BARS curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E62 H60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:5-34

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