When Policies Fuel Economic Cycles

Daniel Daianu
Additional contact information
Daniel Daianu: The National School of Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Bucharest, and Member of the Board of the National Bank of Romania.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2017, issue 1, 167-190

Abstract: The Great Recession has brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles, of policies which fuel, or mitigate crises. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized world. Central banks are over-burdened. This makes central bankers’ life much more complicated and obfuscates the borders between monetary policy and fiscal policy, especially when financial stability gets to center stage. New systemic risks show up in capital markets. The Eurozone has escaped collapse owing to ECB’s extraordinary operations and large macro-imbalance corrections in its periphery, but major threats persist. This paper focuses on economic cycles and policies in an international (European) context. The financial cycle is a key concept in the logic of this paper. The experience of European emerging economies is taken into account. Attention is paid to linkages between domestic cycles and financial cycles, drivers of financial cycles, finance deregulation and systemic risks, ultra low interest tates, the international policy regime and global stability.

Keywords: financial crisis; financial cycle; secular stagnation; debt overhang; low interest rates; policy rates; fiscal policy; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_17/rjef1_2017p167-190.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:1:p:167-190

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).