Stratfor vs. Reality (1995-2025). Dilemmas in Global Forecasting

Dan Dungaciu (), Darie Cristea, Diana Alexandra Dumitrescu and Ştefan Pop Zaharie
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Dan Dungaciu: Institute of Political Sciences and International Relations – Romanian Academy; Commission for Prospective Studies – Romanian Academy
Darie Cristea: Faculty of Sociology and Social Work – University of Bucharest; Commission for Prospective Studies – Romanian Academy.
Diana Alexandra Dumitrescu: Faculty of Sociology and Social Work – University of Bucharest; Commission for Prospective Studies – Romanian Academy.
Ştefan Pop Zaharie: „Dimitrie Cantemir“ Christian University. Commission for Prospective Studies – Romanian Academy.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2018, issue 1, 167-178

Abstract: Our analysis ascertains the particularities of international relations forecasting. This particular type of forecasting peruses especially complex subjects, conjoined with political, economic and military overtones. The particularities of this domain lie in the multitude of variables employed, as well as in the rather unparagoned contexts placed under the theoretical microscope. Despite the methodological difficulties characteristic for this area of expertise, international relations global forecasting products are immensely appreciated in the market. As a result, several companies have succeeded in creating powerful brands - Stratfor is an instance of this. But do the Stratfor Decade Forecasts survive the test of time? And, if inadvertences occur, which are the culprits? The case study we propose aims to examine these very issues.

Keywords: global forecasting; Stratfor; international relations methodology; geoeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F50 F51 F60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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