A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System

Emilian Dobrescu ()

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2018, issue 4, 5-20

Abstract: The paper presents the 2018 Version of the Romanian macromodel. Among its distinguishing features comparatively with previous variants can be mentioned: a) the econometric procedures are based on statistical series for 1989-2017 years, significantly longer than the previous version (1989-2011); b) there were improved methodological algorithms of approximating some missing data, especially those which concern the tangible fixed assets at constant prices, as a measure of the physical capital of economy; c) in order to ameliorate the operational tractability of the model, the specification of some relationships was revisited, and the modalities of ensuring inter-equation compatibility were also simplified. This version is structured into three main blocks: (i) the production factors and output; (ii) the domestic absorption and foreign trade; and (iii) the prices and exchange rate, the national budget revenues and expenditures, the public debt. The experimental simulations confirmed the predictive plausibility of this new version.

Keywords: macromodel; accounting and behavioral relationships; simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E01 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:4:p:5-20

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