Testing the Structural Break of Taiwan Inbound Tourism Markets

Jennifer C. H. Min (), Hsien-Hung Kung () and Tsangyao Chang
Additional contact information
Jennifer C. H. Min: Department of International Business, Ming Chung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Hsien-Hung Kung: Department of Marketing and Distribution Management, Hsing Wu University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2019, issue 2, 117-130

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not shocks to visitor arrivals to Taiwan from China, Japan, the USA and Hong Kong, accounting for over 80% of Taiwan’s inbound tourism, are temporary or permanent. The CBL (Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro, and López-Bazo) with the bootstrap approach, which differs from the previous tests considering cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks based on statistics with good statistical properties, is adopted for the Taiwan’s four inbound time series. The results found that the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak had an impact on Taiwan’s four major inbound markets, but with transitory shocks. A global recession occurred in early 2002, but this shock only impacted the tourist arrivals from China and the USA. The deteriorating economy in 2008 and the European debt crisis in 2011 had devastating consequences on the economic growth around the world, which also impacted different source tourist markets in different time periods, but only with temporary shocks.

Keywords: tourism; time series; tourist source market; intervention shocks; structural break; unit root test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C33 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_19/rjef2_2019p117-130.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:2:p:117-130

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).