The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module

Emilian Dobrescu ()

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2019, issue 2, 5-31

Abstract: The paper presents the sectoral block of the 2018 Version of the Romanian macromodel. Similarly to the previous one, this one orbits around the input-output tables. The method of estimating the A matrix in two phases is employed, as follows: a) econometric determination of its row and column sums by longest stable VAR procedure, and b) application of the RAS method for defining the complete matrix of technical coefficients. The paper also describes the algorithm of estimating the sectoral structure of the economy by a system of equations that involves three categories of exogenous variables: i) the gross value added as a macroeconomic indicator; ii) the A matrix; and iii) the econometric approximation of the final output sectoral distribution. The adopted conceptual and computational hypotheses are tested on the yearly I-O tables of Romania for 1989-2016. Experimentally, a projected sectoral structure of the Romanian economy for the 2017-2020 period is presented.

Keywords: input-output analysis; A matrix; sectoral structure; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C67 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_19/rjef2_2019p5-31.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:2:p:5-31

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).