Computation of China’s Export Performance

Gheorghe Zaman and Iulia Oehler-Şincai

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2019, issue 3, 170-189

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to present a new metrics of export competitiveness, coined as neighborhood export competitiveness. Neighborhood competitiveness refers to competitors with similar export competitive capacity as reflected by world export shares. We estimate the neighborhood export competitiveness by the number of lost/won positions by exporters worldwide over a given period of time, which is relevant from the standpoint of losses/gains in terms of competitive capacity. We test our interpretations resorting to the index of revealed comparative advantage and illustrate the benefits of this method by means of the case study on China, which is the most active exporter worldwide. Our method employed to estimate the export competitiveness in general and in the particular case of China generates more tangible results as compared to classical techniques and approaches. It implies both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, as it presents the situation of major competitors at a given time, but also in its dynamics. It has a direct practical applicability as it outlines the degree of achievement of strategic export objectives and it is also a useful tool to establish distinct types of competition based on neighborhood intervals, each group of competitors revealing specific behaviors. Finally, China’s case study is significant as it underscores this emerging economy’s uniqueness with reference to its speed of climbing up the global competitiveness ladder and its ability to maintain in the long run the gained positions. The originality and value of the present paper are conferred by the newly defined neighborhood export competitiveness, which is tested first in comparison with the already generally accepted index of revealed comparative advantage and, second, on the case of China.

Keywords: neighborhood export competitiveness; trade competitiveness; world export rankings; export shares; revealed comparative advantage; trade competition typology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D40 F02 F10 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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