EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Long-Run and Short-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through during the Period of Economic Reforms in Nigeria: Is it Complete or Incomplete?

Mehmet Balcilar (), Ojonugwa Usman () and Muhammad Sani Musa ()
Additional contact information
Muhammad Sani Musa: Central Administration, Office of the Registrar, Kaduna Polytechnic, Kaduna State, Nigeria.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2020, issue 1, 151-172

Abstract: This study investigates the long-run and short-run exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation in Nigeria during the period of economic reforms by incorporating structural breaks over the period 2000Q1-2017Q4. We applied the minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with a structural break, the Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration test and the estimation procedure based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The empirical results suggest that the long-run and short-run ERPT during this period is incomplete with the longrun pass-through having a stronger effect. This confirms the monetary model of short-run price stickiness. The results further divulge that output growth stimulates inflation while oil price dampens inflation in the long run and short run respectively. The effects of trade openness on inflation both in the long run and short run are positive, which cast doubt on the validity of Romer’s (1993) hypothesis. The deviation from the long-run equilibrium level is corrected by 47.6% speed of adjustment in every quarter. These findings, therefore, provide insights for the policymakers to understand the form and scale of ERPT and use its estimated size as a tool to attain low level of inflation and price stability in Nigeria.

Keywords: ERPT; inflation; combined cointegration; ARDL model; Romer’s hypothesis; Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 F31 F37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_20/rjef1_2020p151-172.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:1:p:151-172

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-08
Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:1:p:151-172