Life Expectancy from the Perspective of Global and Individual Wealth and Expenditures: A Granger Causality Study of Some Eu Countries

Mihai Păunică (), Alexandru Manole (), Cătălina Motofei () and Gabriela - Lidia Tănase ()
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Mihai Păunică: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania.
Alexandru Manole: “ARTIFEX” University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
Cătălina Motofei: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania.
Gabriela - Lidia Tănase: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2020, issue 4, 170-184

Abstract: Increasing life expectancy will generate great benefits for a country, such as less expenditure for the public sector, a greater economic growth, and more active persons in the work field. In this respect, a country can improve its economic situation by identifying and controlling the factors that exert an influence on life expectancy. Previous studies in the field have intensively approached this topic, but the results obtained are still conflicting. The objective of our paper is to continue research and investigations in accordance with previous studies, by analyzing the influence of four explanatory indicators (GDP, health expenditures, individual income and household consumption) on life expectancy (as a dependent variable in the case of males and females) in the particular case of European Union, and seven countries in the EU (Romania, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania and Slovakia). In order to achieve our research objective, we used the Toda-Yamamoto approach of the Granger causality for the data collected for the period 1995-2017. Our study reveals the fact that only in the particular case of Bulgaria the GDP and final consumption do influence life expectancy for men. Wages were found to influence life expectancy only for females in Romania and for men in Poland, thus suggesting differences between genders. Some inverse causalities were also demonstrated. We believe that our research will have theoretical implications by deepening the knowledge in the field regarding life expectancy, and also practical implications allowing the identification of the factors that influence life expectancy (important for countries to take appropriate action). Our research brings value to the field, by analyzing in a unitary manner (same data source, same methodology, same geographical coordinates) the effect of four different explanatory variables, with economic substance, on life expectancy from 2 perspectives: male and female. Also, we analyze the particular case of seven countries in the EU, with similar economic backgrounds, to see if results can be extrapolated. Unfortunately, the results obtained are debatable and generally mixed. Further research is needed in order to identify the underlying causes of the results obtained.

Keywords: life expectancy; influence; economic; Granger causality; VAR; Toda-Yamamoto procedure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:4:p:170-184

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