The Exports Performance of Pakistan: Evidence from the ARDL Cointegration Analysis

Saghir Pervaiz Ghauri (), Hina Qadir (), Rizwan Raheem Ahmed (), Dalia Streimikiene () and Justas Streimikis ()
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Saghir Pervaiz Ghauri: Faculty of Management & Economics, Jinnah University for Women, 5C, Block-5, Nazimabad, Karachi, Pakistan
Hina Qadir: Faculty of Management Sciences, Indus University, Block-17, Gulshan, Karachi, Pakistan;
Rizwan Raheem Ahmed: Faculty of Management Sciences, Indus University, Block-17, Gulshan, Karachi, Pakistan;
Dalia Streimikiene: Lithuanian Sports University, Institute of Sports Science and Innovations, Sporto str. 6, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Justas Streimikis: Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, A. Vivulskio g. 4A-13, 03220 Vilnius, Lithuania; University of Economics and Human Science in Warsaw, Okopowa 59, 01-043 Warsaw, Poland

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2022, issue 4, 150-168

Abstract: The export performance is the most significant aspect to consider for the economic development of every country, even Pakistan. International trade, mainly export, is the main factor in boosting Pakistan's economic development. Therefore, this study finds a short-run & long-run association between export performance and Pakistan's export factors. This study used ARDL-Autoregressive Distributed lag and the data time series from FY1972 to FY 2021. The study has found a short-run and long-run association between factors of exports, including inflation rate, FDIs, exchange rate, GDP, interest rate, and export performance of Pakistan. The findings of the Granger causality check further discovered unidirectional causation between GDP and exports, FDI and exports, and real effective exchange rate & export performance in Pakistan on lag one. Similarly, on lag two, there is a one-way causal relationship between inflation rate and exports and two-way causation between export performance and FDI. Thus, from the results, it is acquainted that there must be much closer coordination with trading alliances to get sustainable export growth among countries.

Keywords: export performance; exchange rate; interest rate; fdi; inflation rate; GDP; ARDL modeling; Granger casualty method JEL Classification: (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 E4 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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