Research on the Non-linear Impact of China's Provincial Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions based on PSTR Model

Yanfang Lyu (), Mengfan Li () and Dong Wang ()
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Yanfang Lyu: School of Statistics, Huaqiao University
Mengfan Li: School of Statistics, Huaqiao University
Dong Wang: School of Business, Minnan Normal University

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2023, issue 1, 46-63

Abstract: With the coming of the trend of global economic integration, the conflict between trade openness and environmental issues is increasingly intensifying. As a result of global warming and frequent smog, the government and the public are paying unprecedented attention to environmental prevention and governance. It has been particularly signifi-cant to coordinate the balance between trade and environment. Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016, the non-linear impact of import and export trade on carbon emissions, considering the influence of economic develop-ment level on carbon emission effect of China's trade, is analyzed by using the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR). The results show that the export trade and import trade have double threshold characteristics on carbon dioxide emissions with economic development level as the transfer variable. The positive promotion effect of export trade on China's carbon dioxide emissions decreases with the improvement of economic development level. The promotion effect of import trade volume on carbon di-oxide emissions shows a non-linear characteristic of first weakening and then slightly strengthening with the improvement of economic level.

Keywords: import and export trade; carbon emission; PSTR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 F18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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