Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Indicators on Lending Rates - A Global Perspective

Dan Costin Nițescu () and Cristian Anghel ()
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Dan Costin Nițescu: The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies
Cristian Anghel: The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2023, issue 1, 64-77

Abstract: The article reflects the analysis of a relevant issue for the post-crisis context: the direct and indirect linkages of factors impacting the interest rate on loans. The first two parts of the research present the post-crisis financial context for the banking business, together with the evolution of interest rates on loans, as well as the relationships among the main macroeconomic indicators. The third part is based on the use of panel Auto Regressive Vector methodology, which identifies the correlations among the macroeconomic indicators that are relevant for the banking business (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, non-performing loans, lending rates). The global sample selected for analysis comprises 20 countries, spread over three continents, with data collected for a 12-year period (2009 - 2021). Together, these countries account for almost 53% of global GDP (as of 2021). The fourth part highlights the results of the study, considering both short and long-term perspectives, together with other qualitative correlations that add value to the research. The paper concludes with a section including the authors' final remarks.

Keywords: financial crisis; credit interest rate; inflation; unemployment; exchange rate; nonperforming loans (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E4 E5 G21 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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