On the Possibilities to forecast the Current Crisis and its Second Wave (In Memory of E. Gaidar)

Askar Akaev (akorotayev@mail.ru), Viktor Sadovnichiy and Andrei Korotaev
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Askar Akaev: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Viktor Sadovnichiy: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Andrei Korotaev: Institute of Africa of Russian Academy of Scienes
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Andrey Korotayev

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2010, vol. 6, 39-46

Abstract: It is shown that the 2008 world economic crisis could have been forecasted a year and a half in advance through the approximation of the oil price dynamics by a power-law function with a finite singularity. Through the approximation of the gold price dynamics by a power-law function with a finite singularity and the calculation with the least-squares’ method of the parameter characterizing critical time a forecast of the second wave of the crisis is proposed, which suggests that it may start in July — August, 2011. In order to mitigate the consequences of the second recession it appears necessary to stop currency wars through transition to the basket of internationally recognized currencies, to limit the dollar emission under the international control and/or to introduce certain elements of the gold monetary standard.

Keywords: world economic crisis; gold price; oil price; dollar emission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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