Details about Andrey Korotayev

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Short-id: pko540

Working Papers

2021

1. ANALYSIS OF GENDER DIFFERENCES IN LIFE EXPECTATIONS AND THE ROLE OF INDIVIDUAL VALUE ORIENTATIONS
   (АНАЛИЗ ГЕНДЕРНЫХ РАЗЛИЧИЙ В ПОКАЗАТЕЛЯХ ОЖИДАЕМОЙ ПРОДОЛЖИТЕЛЬНОСТИ ЖИЗНИ И РОЛЬ ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНЫХ ЦЕННОСТНЫХ ОРИЕНТАЦИЙ)
   Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
2. Education And Revolutions. Why Do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent Or Nonviolent Forms?
   HSE Working papers, National Research University Higher School of Economics

2020

3. Regional features of the influence of value orientations and the level of education on demographic behavior
   (Региональные особенности влияния ценностных ориентаций и уровня образования на демографическое поведение)
   Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
4. The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment
   SocArXiv, Center for Open Science View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment, PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2019

5. Demographic dynamics, value orientations and electoral behavior
   (Демографическая динамика, ценностные ориентации и электоральное поведение)
   Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

2017

6. Country Risk Analysis Based on Demographic and Socio-Economic Data
   (Анализ страновых рисков с использованием демографических и социально-экономических данных)
   Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration View citations (1)
7. World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization
   HSE Working papers, National Research University Higher School of Economics

2016

8. Changes in the Age Structure of the Population and Their Social and Political Consequences
   (Изменения в возрастной структуре населения и их социально-политические последствия)
   Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
9. Global economic dynamics of the forthcoming years. A forecast
   Papers, arXiv.org
10. Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
11. Scenario Demographic Forecasts for the Bric Countries
    (Сценарные демографические прогнозы для стран БРИК)
    Working Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

2015

12. East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
13. Political Demography of Russia. Politics and State Government
    (Политическая демография России. Политика и государственное управление)
    Published Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
14. Political Demography of the World Economy: Tropical Africa
    (Политическая демография мировой экономики: страны тропической Африки)
    Published Papers, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

2013

15. Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective
    Macroeconomics, Socionet View citations (5)
16. Kondratieff's Mystery
    Method and History of Economic Thought, Socionet View citations (3)

2012

17. A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE - 1973 CE
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
18. Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts
    Papers, arXiv.org

2011

19. The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series
    Papers, arXiv.org

2010

20. Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis and Possible Burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April - June 2011
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2024

1. A Troubled Return to the Homeland: Syrian Circassians in Southern Russia
   Europe-Asia Studies, 2024, 76, (4), 613-631

2022

2. 20th Century revolutions: characteristics, types, and waves
   Palgrave Communications, 2022, 9, (1), 1-13
3. COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations
   Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, 175, (C) View citations (6)

2021

4. Deprivation, instability, and propensity to attack: how urbanization influences terrorism
   International Interactions, 2021, 47, (6), 1100-1130 View citations (1)

2020

5. A quantitative analysis of worldwide long-term technology growth: From 40,000 BCE to the early 22nd century
   Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, 155, (C) View citations (2)
6. The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment
   PLOS ONE, 2020, 15, (8), 1-14 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment, SocArXiv (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2018

7. Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies
   Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018, 128, (C), 304-310 View citations (14)
8. Измерение межстранового культурного расстояния через ценностные различия между индивидами и его влияния на глобальную торговлю
   Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), 2018, 54, (1), 3-25

2017

9. Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing
   Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, 115, (C), 52-68 View citations (14)
10. Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years
    (К прогнозированию глобальной экономической динамики ближайших лет)
    Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2017, 1, 8-39
11. “Neighbors in values”: A new dataset of cultural distances between countries based on individuals’ values, and its application to the study of global trade
    Research in International Business and Finance, 2017, 42, (C), 966-985 View citations (3)

2015

12. East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?
    Journal of Developing Societies, 2015, 31, (3), 385-420 View citations (7)

2013

13. Economic Dynamics of the United States in 1990—2011: Keynesian Analysis
    Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2013, (1)

2012

14. The origins of dragon-kings and their occurrence in society
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2012, 391, (21), 5215-5229 View citations (1)

2010

15. On the Possibilities to forecast the Current Crisis and its Second Wave (In Memory of E. Gaidar)
    Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2010, 6, 39-46

2008

16. Book review: Akop P. Nazaretyan, Anthropology of violence and culture of self-organization. Essays in evolutionary historical psychology, 2nd edition, Moscow, URSS, 2008, 256 pages (in Russian)
    The Journal of Philosophical Economics, 2008, 2, (1), 147-152
17. Компактная математическая модель экономического и демографического роста Мир-Системы (1-1973 гг.)
    Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), 2008, 44, (4)

Edited books

2022

1. Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century
   Societies and Political Orders in Transition, Springer View citations (1)

Chapters

2022

1. Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?
   Springer
2. Egypt’s 2011 Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis
   Springer
3. Global Echo of the Arab Spring
   Springer
4. Introduction. Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events
   Springer
5. Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy
   Springer
6. The Arab Spring in Yemen
   Springer
7. The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis
   Springer
8. The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces
   Springer
9. The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions
   Springer

2021

10. Russia-GCC Relations and the Future of Syria: Political Process and Prospects for the Economic Reconstruction
    Springer

2017

11. The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution
    Springer View citations (2)