Kondratieff's Mystery

Grinin Leonid and Andrey Korotayev

Method and History of Economic Thought from Socionet

Abstract: The Russian economist Nikolay Dmitrievich Kondratieff (Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев) left after him a mystery that has been haunting economists and social scientists for almost a hundred years. Joseph Schumpeter named this mystery ‘Kondratieff Cycles’. Why do we observe such regularity in long-term fluctuations of economic and non-economic indicators? Why in certain periods do we observe prolonged upswings, whereas in other periods – notwithstanding all the enormous efforts of interested macroeconomic actors – economic development is accompanied by prolonged depressions? What gets out of order in social and economic mechanisms? Since the publication of Kondratieff's seminal works a number of outstanding researchers have made significant contributions to our understanding of various factors affecting and provoking long-term fluctuations of human economic affairs. On the other hand, it has become more and more clear that K-waves influence many social-related processes. However, nobody appears to have found yet an entirely satisfactory solution of ‘Kondratieff's mystery’, and it continues to attract researchers. It is especially important to solve this mystery, as this could extend our forecasting horizons. In any case, whatever the future destiny of Kondratieff's mystery will be, its immense importance resides in the fact that it stimulates scientific studies of numerous researchers.

Keywords: Kondratieff; Schumpeter; world economy; Economic Conjuncture; Kondratieff waves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2013-02-28
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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