Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years

К прогнозированию глобальной экономической динамики ближайших лет

Akaev, Askar A. (Акаев, Аскар А.) () and Andrey Korotayev
Additional contact information
Akaev, Askar A. (Акаев, Аскар А.): Institute of Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems at Lomonosov Moscow State University; Laboratory for Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2017, vol. 1, 8-39

Abstract: The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and other more developed countries could experience a new recession, due to the third phase of the lobal financial crisis. The economies of developing countries will continue their slowdown due to lower prices of raw commodities and the increased pressure of dollar debt load. The bottom of the slowdown in global economic growth is expected to be achieved in 2017–2018. Then we expect the start of a new acceleration of global economic growth at the upswing phase of the 6th Kondratieff cycle (2018–2050). This upswing will be driven by the development of the 6th technological paradigm whose core is being created by the NBIC-convergence (that is the convergence of nano-, bio-, information, and cognitive technologies). A speedy and steady withdrawal from the third phase of the global financial crisis requires cooperative action between developed and developing countries within G20 to stimulate global demand, world trade and a fair solution of the debt problem of developing countries. On the other hand, the governments of the technologically advanced countries should concentrate resources and efforts on the stimulation of the practical application of the NBIC-technologies because they form the core of the 6th technological paradigm and a new structure of the world economy. The period between 2017 and 2024 is the most favorable for the mastering and diffusion of the breakthrough innovations of the 6th Kondratieff wave.

Keywords: global economic dynamics; Kondratieff economic cycles; global crisis; financial crisis; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 F01 F63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ep1701.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1701

Access Statistics for this article

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy is currently edited by Vladimir Mau

More articles in Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer ().