Introduction. Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events

Jack Goldstone, Leonid Grinin () and Andrey Korotayev
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Leonid Grinin: HSE University

A chapter in Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century, 2022, pp 1-34 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This introductory chapter provides a number of definitions of different kinds and forms of revolutionary events as well as a preliminary description of all the revolutionary waves of the twenty-first century, with their main characteristics and causes, although we also pay attention to revolutions that stand outside these waves. The authors identify three waves of twenty-first century revolutions. The first wave of (color) revolutions happened in 2000–2009. The reasons for this wave at the World System level were the following: (1) the world economy was on the rise, especially actively in the countries of the former second and third worlds; (2) rapid development contributed to the growth of both rising expectations and an increase in inequality; (3) the growth of democratization following upon the fall of communism brought increased influence of Western countries and organizations seeking to assist and/or promote democratization in many formerly authoritarian countries. The second wave is the Arab Spring and its echo, in 2010/2011–2013. The reasons at the World System level for this wave were (1) the world economy was in crisis due to the global Great Recession; (2) development had been rapid but highly uneven in such middle-income countries as Egypt, or Tunisia; (3) agflation (inflation in the prices of agricultural commodities) formed a specific precursor of the revolutionary crisis; and (4) the success of the first wave led to the diffusion of skills and models of non-violent revolution as a way to combat state corruption and displace authoritarian rule. The third wave started in 2018 and continues into the 2020s. At the World System level, this wave had the following reasons: (1) a new deterioration of the situation in the world economy with the lowest annual growth rates since the 1990s, and generally greater concentration of wealth and greater inequality; (2) this resulted in many cases in declining standards of living for the lower and middle income portions of populations, and a rise in prices for some countries; (3) destabilization in the World System in reaction to heightened tensions among the major powers: Europe, the United States, Russia and China; and (4) the continued diffusion of demand for democracy, e.g. in Armenia, Hong Kong, Belarus, etc.; (5) in 2020, COVID is added, which significantly worsens the economic and social situation. In this introductory chapter, we also offer a preliminary analysis of how revolutions change their types and forms over the course of history. The chapter ends with a description of how the present volume is organized.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_1

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