Chaos As A Tool For Exploring Questions of International Security

Alvin M. Saperstein
Additional contact information
Alvin M. Saperstein: Physics Department and Center for Peace and Conflict Studies Wayne State University

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 1994, vol. 13, issue 2, 149-177

Abstract: Mathematical models-static or dynamic-of international systems arc often used to predict outcomes of specific policy choices. The focus of this paper is not such predictions themselves but the question of whether or not such predictability is meaningful. Non-predictability in a deterministic dynamic model is usually referred to as “chaos†and is used in this paper as a paradigm for crisis instability and the possible outbreak of war in a system of competing states. The use of the paradigm is illustrated via initial explorations of three international security questions: 1.) Which is more stable, a bipolar or a multipolar system? 2.) Which are more war prone, democracies or autocracies? 3.) Which leads to more stability, seeking security via independent acquisition of arms or via a balance of power? A simple model-not empirically founded but manifesting some dominant aspects of the situation-is formulated for each question. The stability regime of each model is then determined. Using the postulate that a larger stability range indicates a less war-prone world, and vice-versa, answers to these questions are found, thus providing an alternate approach to the investigation of pressing theoretical and practical questions in international relations.

Date: 1994
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/073889429401300203 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:13:y:1994:i:2:p:149-177

DOI: 10.1177/073889429401300203

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Conflict Management and Peace Science from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().