Comparing New Theory with Prior Beliefs: Market Civilization and the Democratic Peace

Michael Mousseau
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Michael Mousseau: Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey, MMousseau@ku.edu.tr

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2005, vol. 22, issue 1, 63-77

Abstract: Stuart Bremer counseled against the falsificationist convention of testing new models against the null hypothesis of no model. Instead, new models should be compared against prior beliefs, and theories should compete, whenever possible, on a field of equivalent test conditions. This article applies Stuart Bremer's notion of comparative theory testing by comparing a new model of contract norms with the prior institutionalist model of democratic peace. On a field of equivalent test conditions it is found that the hypothesis for contract norms (that the democratic peace is contingent upon economic development) is thousands of times more likely to be true than the hypothesis for institutionalist theory (that democracy pacifies all dyads regardless of economic conditions). Democracy appears to be a significant force for peace only in dyads that are above the median income: the richest 45%. The results indicate that scholars of war should update the widespread prior belief that democracy, alone, causes peace.

Keywords: democratic peace; interstate conflict; political economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:22:y:2005:i:1:p:63-77

DOI: 10.1080/07388940590915327

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