External threats and political survival: Can dispute involvement deter coup attempts?
Cemal Eren Arbatli () and
Ekim Arbatli
Additional contact information
Ekim Arbatli: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia
Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2016, vol. 33, issue 2, 115-152
Abstract:
Diversionary war theory holds that insecure leaders are more likely to pursue aggressive foreign policies than their more secure counterparts. This hypothesis rests on the premise that interstate dispute involvement helps leaders deter potential challenges against their rule. We offer strong support for this premise by looking at coup attempts. Cross-national time-series evidence from interstate dispute participation over the period 1960–2000 indicates that a country in a militarized confrontation with another state is about 60% less likely to experience a coup attempt in the subsequent year. Consistent with our hypothesis, we establish that it is mainly militarized involvement in disputes, rather than non-militarized involvement, that is associated with lower coup likelihood. The results are robust to controlling for a wide set of potential correlates of coups and remain qualitatively intact when we focus entirely on within-country variations in coup attempts and interstate disputes.
Keywords: Civil–military relations; coup; diversionary war theory; external threats; interstate disputes; political instability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)
Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894214545956 (text/html)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:115-152
DOI: 10.1177/0738894214545956
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Conflict Management and Peace Science from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().