Moments in time: Temporal patterns in the effect of democracy and trade on conflict

Mark David Nieman

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2016, vol. 33, issue 3, 273-293

Abstract: Building on economic norms theory, I argue that the causes of international conflict may be contextual rather than constant over time. I explore the temporal patterns in the predictors of conflict in data on European conflict between 1870 and 2001, using an endogenous Markov chain Monte Carlo Poisson change-point model. I find that the period can be divided into two time periods, different in terms of the direction of the effect of the main conflict predictors. While democracy has a positive effect on conflict in the period between 1870 and 1938, it has a negative effect from 1938 to 2001. Likewise, trade initially has no impact on conflict, but later exerts a pacifying effect. Post-estimation analyses suggest that such patterns are best explained by the externalization of contractual norms, which is consistent with economic norms theory.

Keywords: Change-point model; conflict; democracy; economic norms theory; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:33:y:2016:i:3:p:273-293

DOI: 10.1177/0738894215570427

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