Win, lose, or draw in the fog of civil war

J Michael Greig, T David Mason and Jesse Hamner
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J Michael Greig: Castleberry Peace Institute, University of North Texas, USA
T David Mason: Castleberry Peace Institute, University of North Texas, USA
Jesse Hamner: Castleberry Peace Institute, University of North Texas, USA

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2018, vol. 35, issue 5, 523-543

Abstract: Civil war outcome studies have used expected utility logic to identify factors that affect actors’ estimates of the probability of victory, the payoffs from victory vs defeat, and the accumulated costs of fighting until victory is achieved. Tests have used static measures of national attributes and war characteristics, measured prior to the war or at its end. We use UCDP Georeferenced Event Data from 73 civil conflicts in Africa to estimate how changes in government and rebel tactical choices on where and when to fight battles affect expected utility estimates and, therefore, civil war outcomes.

Keywords: African conflicts; battle data; civil wars; civil war outcomes; conflict termination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:35:y:2018:i:5:p:523-543

DOI: 10.1177/0738894216649343

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