The local geography of transnational terrorism

Josiah Marineau, Henry Pascoe, Alex Braithwaite, Michael Findley and Joseph Young
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Josiah Marineau: Campbellsville University, USA
Henry Pascoe: IE University, Spain
Alex Braithwaite: University of Arizona, USA
Michael Findley: University of Texas at Austin, USA
Joseph Young: American University, USA

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2020, vol. 37, issue 3, 350-381

Abstract: Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.

Keywords: Geocoding; matching; multilevel modeling; transnational terrorism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:37:y:2020:i:3:p:350-381

DOI: 10.1177/0738894218789356

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