Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process

Vesna Danilovic and Joe Clare
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Vesna Danilovic: Department of Political Science, 12292University at Buffalo-SUNY, USA
Joe Clare: Department of Political Science, Louisiana State University, USA

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2023, vol. 40, issue 6, 634-654

Abstract: We examine whether bargaining behavior alters the initially expected effects of exogenous factors, such as power balance, issues, and domestic regimes, influencing crisis outcomes. Our argument is that, instead of weakening threat credibility as assumed in the traditional advocacy for firmness, mixing coercion with accommodation optimally allows states to reach an outcome within the bargaining range shaped by exogenous factors. After establishing causal mechanisms, we test our hypotheses over the 1918−2015 period. The findings validate our expectations that intransigence exacerbates crisis stability even under favorable exogenous conditions whereas mixed bargaining mitigates the effects of unfavorable ones.

Keywords: crisis bargaining; democratic peace; issue salience; relative power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:40:y:2023:i:6:p:634-654

DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153332

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