Does a patron state's hardline posture reassure the public in an allied state?

Masaki Hata, Takeshi Iida, Yasuhiro Izumikawa and Tongfi Kim
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Masaki Hata: Faculty of Public Policy, 12897Kyoto Prefectural University, Japan
Takeshi Iida: Department of Political Science, 12757Doshisha University, Japan
Yasuhiro Izumikawa: Department of International Politics, 12698Aoyama Gakuin University, Japan
Tongfi Kim: The Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2024, vol. 41, issue 6, 670-692

Abstract: How does a great power ally's demonstration of toughness toward a common adversary influence the sense of security among its weaker ally's citizens? The literature on the effects of standing firm against adversaries has significantly evolved in recent years, but empirical evidence is scarce, especially at the mass level. By taking advantage of the unique opportunity of the 2019 North Korea–US Hanoi summit, we examine the conditions under which a powerful alliance partner's firm and uncompromising posture toward a common adversary reassures the citizens of a junior ally. Based on alliance literature, we hypothesize that a patron's hawkish policy reassures its protégé when the protégé fears abandonment more than entrapment and that the more a citizen of the protégé fears abandonment, the more reassuring the patron's hawkish policy is to the individual. Our analysis of online surveys conducted before and after the summit using a quota sample of the Japanese electorate shows that the level of threat perception is significantly lower in the post-summit sample than in the pre-summit one, especially among the respondents who fear abandonment by the US. We thus conclude that President Trump's decision not to compromise with North Korea on its nuclear programs alleviated Japanese citizens’ concerns about US alliance commitments to Japan, improving their security perception. This study is significant in showing that a patron state's policy toward a common adversary can greatly influence the perception of its ally's citizens as well as its government.

Keywords: alliance; North Korea; public opinion; reassurance; the US–Japan relationship (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:41:y:2024:i:6:p:670-692

DOI: 10.1177/07388942231216733

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