Assessing Research Impact

Ronald N. Kostoff
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Ronald N. Kostoff: Office of Naval Research

Evaluation Review, 1994, vol. 18, issue 1, 11-19

Abstract: Three types of semiquantitative methods used by the federal government in research impact assessment are presented. These include the classic retrospective method (Project Hindsight), another retrospective approach (Project TRACES andfollow-ons), and accomplishments books used by selected research-sponsoring organizations (Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Department of Energy Office of Health and Environmental Research, Department of Energy High Energy Physics Program, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed. One goal of all the studies presented was to identify the products of research and some of their impacts. In addition, the Hindsight, the technology in retrospect and critical events in science (TRACES), and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) studies tried to identify factors that influenced the productivity and impact of research. The following general conclusions about the role and impact of basic research were reached: (1) the majority of basic research events that directly affected technologies or systems were nonmission oriented and occurred many decades before the technology or the system emerged; (2) the cumulative indirect impacts of basic research were not accounted for by any of the retrospective approaches published; (3) an advanced pool of knowledge must be developed in many fields before synthesis leading to an innovation can occur; and (4) allocation of benefits among researchers, organizations, and funding agencies to determine economic returns from basic research is very difficult and arbitrary, especially at the microlevel.

Date: 1994
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:evarev:v:18:y:1994:i:1:p:11-19

DOI: 10.1177/0193841X9401800102

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