Aftershocks of Chile’s Earthquake for an Ongoing, Large-Scale Experimental Evaluation

Lorenzo Moreno, Ernesto Treviño, Hirokazu Yoshikawa, Susana Mendive, Joaquín Reyes, Felipe Godoy, Francisca Del Río, Catherine Snow, Diana Leyva, Clara Barata, MaryCatherine Arbour and Andrea Rolla
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Lorenzo Moreno: Mathematica Policy Research, Princeton, NJ, USA, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA, lmoreno@mathematica-mpr.com
Ernesto Treviño: Centro de Políticas Comparadas de Educación, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile
Hirokazu Yoshikawa: Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, USA
Susana Mendive: Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, USA, School of Education, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Joaquín Reyes: School of Education, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile
Felipe Godoy: School of Education, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile
Francisca Del Río: School of Education, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile
Catherine Snow: Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, USA
Diana Leyva: Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, USA
Clara Barata: Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, USA
MaryCatherine Arbour: Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA, Center on the Developing Child, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Andrea Rolla: Center of Studies, Ministry of Education, Santiago, Chile

Evaluation Review, 2011, vol. 35, issue 2, 103-117

Abstract: Evaluation designs for social programs are developed assuming minimal or no disruption from external shocks, such as natural disasters. This is because extremely rare shocks may not make it worthwhile to account for them in the design. Among extreme shocks is the 2010 Chile earthquake. Un Buen Comienzo (UBC), an ongoing early childhood program in Chile, was directly affected by the earthquake. This article discusses (a) the factors the UBC team considered for deciding whether to put on hold or continue implementation and data collection for this experimental study; and (b) how the team reached consensus on those decisions. A lesson learned is that the use of an experimental design for UBC insured that the evaluation’s internal validity was not compromised by the earthquake’s consequences, although cohort comparisons were compromised. Other lessons can be transferred to other contexts where external shocks affect an ongoing experimental or quasi-experimental impact evaluation.

Keywords: impact evaluation; human development; external shocks; institutional factors; Latin America and the Caribbean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:evarev:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:103-117

DOI: 10.1177/0193841X11400685

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