An Artifact in Pretest-Posttest Designs

Michael D. Maltz, Andrew C. Gordon, David McDowall and Richard McCleary
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Michael D. Maltz: University of Illinois at Chicago Circle
Andrew C. Gordon: Northwestern University
David McDowall: Northwestern University
Richard McCleary: Arizona State University

Evaluation Review, 1980, vol. 4, issue 2, 225-240

Abstract: A marked decrease in arrest rates-up to 70%-was noted in the evaluation of a juve nile corrections program. This so-called "suppression effect" has been widely publicized as proof of the effectiveness of correctional intervention. In this article we show that the sup pression effect can easily be explained as a statistical artifact, regression to the mean, assuming that judges base their sentencing decisions on juveniles' prior records. We con clude that before/after comparisons should not be used to evaluate delinquency programs.

Date: 1980
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:evarev:v:4:y:1980:i:2:p:225-240

DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8000400204

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