Arms and Aggression in the Middle East, 1948-1991

Jochen Mayer and Ralph Rotte
Additional contact information
Jochen Mayer: SELAPO, University of Munich, Germany
Ralph Rotte: SELAPO, University of Munich, Germany, and Institute for International Relations, University of the German Armed Forces, Munich, Germany

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1999, vol. 43, issue 1, 45-57

Abstract: In a 1995 article in Journal of Conflict Resolution, Kinsella and Tillema argued that, between 1948 and 1991, American arms transfers to Israel exercised a restraining influence on both Israel and its Arab rivals, whereas Soviet transfers to Egypt and Syria tended to destabilize the region. This article reexamines Kinsella and Tillema's Poisson results by applying a more sophisticated statistical method to their data set. Using a multiplicative Poisson model that allows for variation in the coefficients depending on a metrical reference variable, the authors show how the impact of superpower activity on Middle Eastern interventions has changed with the influx of weaponry. They confirm that U.S. arms transfers decreased the likelihood of military intervention in the region, whereas Soviet supplies did not affect it. Contrary to Kinsella and Tillema, however, the authors show that the stabilizing effect of arms transfers clearly decreases with the total amount of armaments supplied to the region.

Date: 1999
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002799043001003 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:1:p:45-57

DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043001003

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().