Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War

Rafael Reuveny and William R. Thompson
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Rafael Reuveny: School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University
William R. Thompson: Department of Political Science, Indiana University

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1999, vol. 43, issue 5, 570-595

Abstract: Focusing on an initial and potentially expandable four-variable model combining leading sector innovation, leading sector concentration, naval capability concentration, and military preparation for warfare, a vector autoregression analysis of U.S. data for the 1801-1992 period reveals a substantial degree of interrelationship. The two leading sector variables “Granger cause†the two military-political variables (naval capability concentration and military preparation for warfare). Eight of nine other anticipated relationships linking specific variables are obtained, as are two unanticipated relationships linking naval concentration negatively to the leading sector variables. A very tight, coevolutionary pattern is found to characterize the economic growth-systemic leadership-military mobilization experience of the United States, thereby underlining the constraints of structural change.

Date: 1999
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:5:p:570-595

DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043005002

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