Reciprocity, Triangularity, and Cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97

Joshua S. Goldstein, Jon C. Pevehouse, Deborah J. Gerner and Shibley Telhami
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Joshua S. Goldstein: School of International Service, American University, Washington, D.C.
Jon C. Pevehouse: Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Deborah J. Gerner: Department of Political Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence
Shibley Telhami: Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland at College Park

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2001, vol. 45, issue 5, 594-620

Abstract: Does bilateral reciprocity or great-power influence (or both) promote the emergence of international cooperation in regional conflicts? Using machine-coded events data and vector autoregression, time-series analysis of 12 international dyads in the Middle East between 1979 and 1990 and 1991 and 1995 found bilateral reciprocity widespread in both time periods, characterizing nearly all dyads of sustained conflict and a majority of other dyads with various power and proximity characteristics. Significant triangular responses to U.S. actions occurred in only a few cases, although key ones—Iraq with its neighbors and Israel with Palestine. Neither bilateral reciprocity nor triangular response predicted changes in long-term conflict and cooperation. Rather, the presence of one or both of these response patterns appeared to be necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for regional states to increase long-term cooperation.

Date: 2001
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:5:p:594-620

DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045005003

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