Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace

Lars-Erik Cederman and Mohan Penubarti Rao
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Lars-Erik Cederman: Government Department, Harvard University
Mohan Penubarti Rao: Director, InteCap, Inc.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2001, vol. 45, issue 6, 818-833

Abstract: In quantitative models of international conflict, the variables' causal effects are generally assumed to be constant over historical time. Yet, qualitative liberal theorizing, especially that of Immanuel Kant, has tended to emphasize a dynamic perspective based on the theme of progress. To bridge this gap between method-imposed stasis and theoretical dynamics, a framework featuring time-varying parameters is applied to the democratic peace hypothesis. The model strongly confirms a dynamic reinterpretation of Kant's theory. Results show that dispute probabilities decline steadily among democratic states over time, and the democratic peace hypothesis is not just a transient cold war effect. This result is robust to statistical control involving geopolitical and liberal control variables, including alliances, capabilities, and economic development.

Date: 2001
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:6:p:818-833

DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045006006

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