After 9/11

Walter Enders and Todd Sandler

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2005, vol. 49, issue 2, 259-277

Abstract: Using time-series procedures, the authors investigate whether transnational terrorism changed following 9/11 and the subsequent U.S.-led “war on terror.†Perhaps surprising, little has changed in the time series of overall incidents and most of its component series. When 9/11 is prejudged as a break date, the authors find that logistically complex hostage-taking events have fallen as a proportion of all events, while logistically simple, but deadly, bombings have increased as a proportion of deadly incidents. These results hold when they apply the Bai-Perron procedure in which structural breaks are data identified. This procedure locates earlier breaks in the mid-1970s and 1990s. Reasonable out-of-sample forecasts are possible if structural breaks are incorporated fairly rapidly into the model.

Keywords: after 9/11; terrorism; time series; intervention analysis; forecasts; Bai-Perron test; war on terror (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:259-277

DOI: 10.1177/0022002704272864

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