Economics at your fingertips  

Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset

HÃ¥vard Hegre and Nicholas Sambanis
Additional contact information
HÃ¥vard Hegre: Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Nicholas Sambanis: Political Science Department, Yale University

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2006, vol. 50, issue 4, 508-535

Abstract: In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.

Keywords: civil war; internal armed conflict; sensitivity analysis; ethnic fractionalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (91) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().

Page updated 2018-11-17
Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:4:p:508-535