The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset

Randall J. Blimes
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Randall J. Blimes: Department of Political Science University of Colorado, Boulder

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2006, vol. 50, issue 4, 536-547

Abstract: This study leverages a statistical model to answer an empirical puzzle: given that popular conventional wisdom and many theories of ethnic conflict suggest that the ethnic composition of a society should influence the probability that a country experiences civil war, why are the results of large- n studies so contradictory? The author argues that confusion over the nature of the relationship between ethnic cleavages and the likelihood of civil war onset stems from a disconnect between ethnic conflict theory and empirical testing. Most studies that test for a relationship between the level of ethnic fractionalization and civil war onset test only for a direct relationship, while theories of ethnic conflict have suggested that ethnic diversity should have an indirect effect of the likelihood of civil war onset. The author uses a heteroskedastic probit model to show that ethnic fractionalization has an indirect effect on the likelihood of civil war onset.

Keywords: Ethnic heterogeneity; civil war; conflict; ethnic fractionalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:4:p:536-547

DOI: 10.1177/00222706289402

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