Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks?

Jason Lyall
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Jason Lyall: Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University, New Jersey

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2009, vol. 53, issue 3, 331-362

Abstract: Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? To date, most existing theories and empirical studies have concluded that such violence is highly counterproductive because it creates new grievances while forcing victims to seek security, if not safety, in rebel arms. This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence's effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages experience a 24 percent reduction in posttreatment mean insurgent attacks relative to control villages. In addition, commonly cited “triggers†for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and destructiveness of indiscriminate violence, are either negatively correlated with insurgent attacks or statistically insignificant.

Keywords: civil war; indiscriminate violence; insurgent attacks; matching; Chechnya (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:53:y:2009:i:3:p:331-362

DOI: 10.1177/0022002708330881

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