Estimating War Deaths

Michael Spagat, Andrew Mack, Tara Cooper and Joakim Kreutz
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Andrew Mack: School for International Studies Simon Fraser University, Canada
Tara Cooper: School for International Studies Simon Fraser University, Canada
Joakim Kreutz: Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University, Sweden

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2009, vol. 53, issue 6, 934-950

Abstract: In a much-cited recent article, Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou (2008a) examine estimates of wartime fatalities from injuries for thirteen countries. Their analysis poses a major challenge to the battle-death estimating methodology widely used by conflict researchers, engages with the controversy over whether war deaths have been increasing or decreasing in recent decades, and takes the debate over different approaches to battle-death estimation to a new level. In making their assessments, the authors compare war death reports extracted from World Health Organization (WHO) sibling survey data with the battle-death estimates for the same countries from the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). The analysis that leads to these conclusions is not compelling, however. Thus, while the authors argue that the PRIO estimates are too low by a factor of three, their comparison fails to compare like with like. Their assertion that there is “no evidence†to support the PRIO finding that war deaths have recently declined also fails. They ignore war-trend data for the periods after 1994 and before 1955, base their time trends on extrapolations from a biased convenience sample of only thirteen countries, and rely on an estimated constant that is statistically insignificant.

Keywords: civil war; armed conflict; war deaths; health surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:53:y:2009:i:6:p:934-950

DOI: 10.1177/0022002709346253

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