Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data

Peter Tikuisis (), David Carment and Yiagadeesen Samy
Additional contact information
Peter Tikuisis: DRDC Toronto, Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
David Carment: Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2013, vol. 57, issue 3, 410-444

Abstract: The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined. While model accuracy (total correct predictions of COI and non-COI) usually exceeded 90 percent, the model did not generate sufficiently high and consistent precision (correct number of COI over total predicted) and recall (correct number of COI over total observed) for practical use.

Keywords: political violence; failed state; early warning; crisis forecast; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/57/3/410.abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:57:y:2013:i:3:p:410-444

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().