Sequencing the Peace

Madhav Joshi, Erik Melander and Jason Michael Quinn

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2017, vol. 61, issue 1, 4-28

Abstract: Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period—the holding of the first post-accord election—which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.

Keywords: civil war; peace agreement; implementation; accommodation; demobilization; bargaining; sequencing; recurrence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:61:y:2017:i:1:p:4-28

DOI: 10.1177/0022002715576573

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