 Even Generals Need FriendsClayton Thyne, Jonathan Powell, Sarah Parrott and Emily VanMeter Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2018, vol. 62, issue 7, 1406-1432 Abstract: Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coups. Coups remain difficult to predict and consequently leave policy makers in a reactive stance, but little systematic work assesses how these reactions influence long-term outcomes. We examine how reactions from domestic and international actors influence the duration of coup-born regimes, arguing that negative reactions will shorten leadership duration. We further probe these relationships by considering how signaling consistency, Cold War dynamics, and precoup relationships condition the influence of reactions on leadership duration. Tests use events data to capture domestic and international reactions and newly coded information on leadership to capture leader duration. Results indicate that international responses have a profound influence on leadership tenure, especially those from strong actors. We find tentative support that state reactions have the strongest effect during the Cold War, while international organizations matter the most afterward. Keywords: political survival; democratization; international organization; economic sanctions (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:62:y:2018:i:7:p:1406-1432 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International) |
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