Concessions or Crackdown: How Regime Stability Shapes Democratic Responses to Hostage taking Terrorism

Aslihan Saygili

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2019, vol. 63, issue 2, 468-501

Abstract: A prominent view in the terrorism literature is that democracies make soft targets for terrorists due to their citizenry’s low tolerance for civilian casualties. This study tests this claim in the context of hostage taking terrorism, which is a unique form of violence that coerces the target state into negotiating over its citizens’ lives under public scrutiny. I argue that democratic accountability generates softer responses to hostage crises only in mature democracies, where leaders’ concern over being held accountable for the human costs of a no-concessions policy outweighs the reputational costs of conceding to terrorists’ demands. Using data on government responses to hostage incidents from 1978 to 2005, I find that regime type becomes a significant predictor of target concessions only at higher levels of regime stability. To test the accountability mechanism proposed by theory, I examine the effect of electoral cycles on target response; as expected, while nearing elections soften democratic responses to hostage crises, in general their positive effect on the likelihood of concessions is stronger in consolidated democracies.

Keywords: terrorism; counterterrorism; civilian casualties; democratic institutions; internal armed conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:2:p:468-501

DOI: 10.1177/0022002717736109

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