 Responding to Uncertainty: The Importance of Covertness in Support for Retaliation to Cyber and Kinetic AttacksKathryn Hedgecock and Lauren Sukin Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2023, vol. 67, issue 10, 1873-1903 Abstract: This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based†theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based†theory argues an attack’s material consequences determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack has the largest effect on its propensity towards escalation. We identify two characteristics of covertness that affect support for retaliation: the certainty of attribution and its timing. We use a survey experiment to assess public support for retaliation, while varying the means, effects, timing, and attribution certainty of attacks. We find no evidence for the effects-based approach, instead finding high levels of support for retaliation regardless of an attack’s scale. We find that the most significant contributor to support for retaliation is an attack’s covertness. Keywords: Cyber; Escalation; Deterrence; Attribution; Covert Action (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:10:p:1873-1903 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231153580 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International) |
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