Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias

Michael DiFilippo, Kevin Krieger, Justin Davis and Andy Fodor

Journal of Sports Economics, 2014, vol. 15, issue 2, 201-211

Abstract: Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. The authors find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL seasons yields a statistically significant return of 13.6% per game.

Keywords: sports wagering; efficient markets; NFL; betting bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:15:y:2014:i:2:p:201-211

DOI: 10.1177/1527002512454544

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