Staking in Sports Betting Under Unknown Probabilities: Practical Guide for Profitable Bettors

Andrés Barge-Gil and Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux

Journal of Sports Economics, 2020, vol. 21, issue 6, 593-609

Abstract: Kelly staking has been proven to maximize long-term bankroll growth of bettors with positive expected yield (profitable bettors). However, it demands for an estimation of the true probabilities for each event. Thus, many sport tipsters opt for simpler flat ( unit-loss ) or unit-win staking plans. We analyze under which assumptions these strategies correspond to the Kelly method and propose a different staking plan, unit-impact , under the hypothesis that it fits better with Kelly’s. We test our predictions using data of professional tipsters from the betting database pyckio.com . Results show empirical support for our hypothesis.

Keywords: sports betting; Kelly criterion; staking methods; tipsters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:21:y:2020:i:6:p:593-609

DOI: 10.1177/1527002520921227

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