EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Staking in Sports Betting Under Unknown Probabilities: Practical Guide for Profitable Bettors

Andrés Barge-Gil () and Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux ()

Journal of Sports Economics, 2020, vol. 21, issue 6, 593-609

Abstract: Kelly staking has been proven to maximize long-term bankroll growth of bettors with positive expected yield (profitable bettors). However, it demands for an estimation of the true probabilities for each event. Thus, many sport tipsters opt for simpler flat ( unit-loss ) or unit-win staking plans. We analyze under which assumptions these strategies correspond to the Kelly method and propose a different staking plan, unit-impact , under the hypothesis that it fits better with Kelly’s. We test our predictions using data of professional tipsters from the betting database pyckio.com . Results show empirical support for our hypothesis.

Keywords: sports betting; Kelly criterion; staking methods; tipsters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002520921227 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:21:y:2020:i:6:p:593-609

DOI: 10.1177/1527002520921227

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Sports Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().

 
Page updated 2021-01-21
Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:21:y:2020:i:6:p:593-609