Staking in Sports Betting Under Unknown Probabilities: Practical Guide for Profitable Bettors
Andrés Barge-Gil () and
Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux ()
Journal of Sports Economics, 2020, vol. 21, issue 6, 593-609
Kelly staking has been proven to maximize long-term bankroll growth of bettors with positive expected yield (profitable bettors). However, it demands for an estimation of the true probabilities for each event. Thus, many sport tipsters opt for simpler flat ( unit-loss ) or unit-win staking plans. We analyze under which assumptions these strategies correspond to the Kelly method and propose a different staking plan, unit-impact , under the hypothesis that it fits better with Kellyâ€™s. We test our predictions using data of professional tipsters from the betting database pyckio.com . Results show empirical support for our hypothesis.
Keywords: sports betting; Kelly criterion; staking methods; tipsters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:21:y:2020:i:6:p:593-609
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Journal of Sports Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().