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How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga

Brian Soebbing (), Pamela Wicker, Daniel Weimar and Johannes Orlowski

Journal of Sports Economics, 2021, vol. 22, issue 3, 231-250

Abstract: This study examines how running performance (intensive runs, total distance covered) of football teams in previous games impacts betting markets as it relates to expected win probability. Theoretically, bookmakers could interpret team’s running performance as effort or fatigue, with sports science studies suggesting that distance covered reflects effort and intensive runs signal fatigue. Using data from the 2011/12-2018/19 seasons of the German Bundesliga, beta regression models reveal that bookmakers interpret team’s running performance in previous games contrary to physiological explanations in sports sciences. Tests of market efficiency incorporating these findings do not find a profitable betting strategy for bettors.

Keywords: bookmaker; efficient market hypothesis; effort; fatigue; soccer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/1527002520975827

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